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Part.1
One night, a young man who we’ll call Student went to sleep and fell into a strange dream.
一天晚上，一个年轻人，我们叫他学生，睡着了，做了一个奇怪的梦。
Student: Huh, where am I? I don’t recognize this place.
学生: 啊，我在哪里? 我不认识这个地方。
In front of him was a large black box, with a door on one side. He walked in.
在他的前面是一个大黑盒子，一边有一个门。他走了进去。
Inside, he found a backpack sitting on the floor. He looked inside, and found it full of little boxes, nicely packed and neatly labeled.
在屋里，他发现地板上有一个背包。他往里看了看，发现里面装满了小盒子，包装得很好，标签也很整齐。
Student: Oh, ok. I recognize some of the labels on these boxes:
学生: 哦，好的，我认得这些盒子上的一些标签:
- The sun rises every morning and sets in the evening. 太阳每天早晨升起，晚上落下。
- I live in a village, along with 200 other people. 我和其他200个人住在一个村子里。
- It gets warm for several months, when we grow crops, and cold for months after. 当我们种庄稼的时候，天气会变暖几个月，之后就会变冷几个月。
- My comfortable walking speed is 3-4 kilometers per hour. 我舒适的行走速度是每小时3-4公里。
- I eat three meals every day. 我每天吃三顿饭。
Student: I see what this is. This must be my Backpack of Knowledge. It’s the collection of everything I know, and everything I’ve learned over my life so far.
学生: 我知道这是什么了。这一定是我的知识背包。它收集了我所知道的一切，以及我迄今为止在生活中所学到的一切。
He looked through the backpack for a little while, looking at all of his experience and knowledge all arranged inside it, stacked neatly inside. He opened a few of the packages of knowledge, and found familiar details. This made him happy.
他透过背包看了一会儿，看着里面整齐地堆放着他所有的经验和知识。他打开了几包知识，发现了熟悉的细节。这让他很高兴。
Then he heard someone coming.
然后他听到有人来了。
Student: Oh hello! I remember you; you were my Grade 11 Physics teacher. Nice to see you. It’s been a long time. What brings you here?
学生: 哦，你好！我记得你，你是我11年级的物理老师。好久不见，什么风把你吹来了？
Teacher: Hi there. I’m just checking in to see how you’re doing in your life-long pursuit of knowledge and understanding. What’s all this?
老师: 你好。我只是来看看你一生对知识和理解的追求进展如何。这些都是什么？
Student: I’m glad you asked. Look at how much I know now! You must be so proud of me, knowing about so many different things. I’ve solved how all of these pieces fit together, and how one causes another, like clockwork.
学生: 很高兴你这么问。看看我现在知道了多少！你一定为我感到骄傲，知道这么多不同的事情。我已经解决了所有这些碎片是如何组合在一起的问题，以及一个事情如何导致另一个事情发生，就像钟表一样。
Teacher: Can you tell me what you mean by that?
老师: 你能告诉我你这是什么意思吗？
Student: Let me show you an example. See here are two boxes inside my backpack of knowledge – I comfortably walk 3-4 kilometres per hour and I live in a village of 200 people. You might wonder why those two boxes are packed next to each other, but the first one actually causes the second one.
学生: 让我给你们举个例子。看，在我的知识背包里有两个箱子——我每小时轻松地走3-4公里，住在一个200人的村子里。你可能想知道为什么这两个盒子一个挨着一个，但实际上第一个盒子导致了第二个盒子。
See, I live in a village, and we feed ourselves from our farmland that spreads outwards around us. Our walking speed dictates how far from our village we can cover, and therefore, the radius of ground that we can harvest. And that sets an upper bound on our village population.
看，我住在一个村子里，我们靠周围的农田养活自己。我们的行走速度决定了我们可以走多远，因此，我们可以收获的土地的半径。这对我们村的人口设置了一个上限。
Therefore, he summarized proudly, given a walking speed of 3-4 km/hour, the natural size for how big our village can be is 200 people.
因此，他自豪地总结道，考虑到行走速度为每小时3-4公里，我们村的自然规模能有多大，就是200人。
The teacher thought by herself for a minute.
老师自己想了一会儿。
Teacher: Can I show you something?
老师: 我能给你看点东西吗？
Student: Of course. I’m always happy to learn new things. I’m a good learner, as you can see.
学生: 当然。我总是很乐意学习新东西。你也看到了，我是个好学生。
They walked outside the box. The student looked around and was amazed. This world had all kinds of people, and tools, and ideas, and communities that he’d never seen before. He walked around and visited some of them. He saw a community of nomads and their horses, who were always on the move. He saw a crowded city on the sea, with an enormous market.
他们走出了盒子。这个学生环顾四周，感到很惊讶。这个世界有各种各样的人，工具，想法，和他从未见过的社区。他走来走去，拜访了其中的一些人。他看到一群游牧民和他们的马，他们总是在迁徙。他看到了海边一个拥挤的城市，有着巨大的市场。
Then he looked higher and saw much bigger ideas, and more complex forces that shaped the world. He looked around at the laws of math and physics, classically spelling out the clockwork movement of everything around him. He was amazed, and realized how small and local his own experience was.
然后他看得更高，看到了更大的想法，以及塑造世界的更复杂的力量。他环顾四周，研究着数学和物理定律，经典地讲述着他周围一切事物的发条运动。他很惊讶，并意识到他自己的经历是多么的渺小和本土化。
These must be universal truths, he wondered. The whole world felt like a finely crafted watch; running smoothly in balance, by laws of cause-and-effect.
这些一定是普遍真理，他想。整个世界就像一块精心制作的手表，按照因果律平衡地顺利运转。
Student: This is so cool. I can understand so much more now that I see the bigger picture. I was silly for thinking there could be a fixed upper limit on how big villages can be, based on only walking speed! Their size must be determined by a much bigger and more complicated formula, that doesn’t only incorporate walking speed, but also lots of other things.
学生: 这太酷了。现在我看到了更大的图景，我可以理解得更多了。我曾经愚蠢地认为，仅仅根据步行的速度，就可以对村庄的大小设定一个固定的上限！它们的大小必须由一个更大、更复杂的公式来决定，这个公式不仅包括行走速度，还包括许多其他因素。
I see why you wanted to show me all of this. I knew so little before. But now I know much more.
我明白你为什么要给我看这些了。我以前知道的太少了。但现在我知道的更多了。
Teacher: I’m afraid you are mistaken. You haven’t learned anything yet.
老师: 恐怕你搞错了，你还什么都没学到呢。
Student: What do you mean? I’ve learned the laws of nature, and of civilization. I understand the whole picture now, like clockwork. What’s left for me to learn?
学生: 什么意思？我学会了自然法则和文明法则。我现在明白了整个情况，就像时钟一样准确。我还有什么可学的？
Teacher: Let me show you something else.
老师: 让我给你看看别的东西。
So they walked again, into yet again an even bigger world. This world was dark and hot.
于是他们又一次走进了一个更大的世界，这个世界黑暗而炎热。
The student looked around. He could see he was inside a giant furnace. He could see the world of clockwork precision he’d left behind, now surrounded by fuel burning all around him, and slowly crumbling into spent ash.
那个学生环顾四周。他可以看到自己在一个巨大的熔炉里。他可以看到他离开时钟般精确的世界，现在被燃烧着的燃料包围着，慢慢地碎成灰烬。
Student: What is this place? This is awful.
学生: 这是什么地方? 太可怕了。
Teacher: Oh, this? She responded cheerfully. This is the real world. We learned this in the 19th century, when we discovered entropy and the laws of thermodynamics. We see the world as structured and orderly, but that structure is temporary.
老师: 哦，这个吗？她高兴地回答。这就是现实世界。我们在19世纪学到了这一点，当时我们发现了熵和热力学定律。我们认为世界是有组织有秩序的，但这种结构只是暂时的。
Over the long run, all of the organized structure in the world slowly but irreversibly breaks down into perfectly uniform disorder. Mountains eventually grind down into dirt; plants and animals die. Friendships end, social contracts dissolve. Kingdoms eventually fall away and are forgotten. Even the sun will run out one day. It’s like that riddle from The Hobbit. Nothing survives time, in the long run.
从长远来看，世界上所有有组织的结构都缓慢而不可逆转地分解成完全一致的无序状态。山脉最终会被磨成泥土，植物和动物也会死亡。友谊结束，社会契约解除。王国最终会消失并被遗忘。即使是太阳总有一天也会枯竭。就像《霍比特人》里的那个谜语。从长远来看，没有什么能在时间中生存。
She said all of this very excitedly, like it was somehow a good thing. The student did not understand how that could possibly be good news for anybody.
她非常兴奋地说了这一切，好像这是一件好事似的。这个学生不明白这对任何人来说怎么可能是好消息。
Teacher: I have one more thing to show you.
老师: 我还有一样东西要给你看。
Student: That’s fine with me; please get me out of here. This place makes me upset.
学生: 我没问题，请把我弄出去，这个地方让我很不安。
They walked back towards the previous world, the one he expected ran like clockwork. But it had changed since they’d last been there. The world was now full of bugs.
他们回到了以前的世界，那个他所期待的世界像钟表一样准时地运转着。但是自从他们最后一次来到这里以后，这里已经变了。这个世界现在充满了虫子（bug）。
Teacher: See? Aren’t they wonderful? They’re evolving.
老师: 看到了吗? 它们是不是很棒? 它们在进化。
The bugs were multiplying rapidly. Over in a far corner, they’d evolved arms and legs, and seemed to be building simple tools. In another corner, some of the laws of civilization and society he’d taken as hard truths were getting enthusiastically reshaped by the bugs. He could see all of the structure from before, that seemed so permanent, getting chaotically rearranged before his eyes.
这些虫子正在迅速繁殖。在一个遥远的角落里，它们已经进化出胳膊和腿，并且似乎正在制造简单的工具。在另一个角落，一些他认为是硬道理的文明和社会法则正被虫子们热情地重新塑造。他可以看到以前所有的结构，似乎是如此的永久，在他眼前被混乱地重新排列。
Teacher: In a few days, you won’t recognize any of this. It’ll have become something completely new. They’re constantly evolving more complex and specialized features and tools that give them an advantage. It’s not just the bugs that work this way, for that matter. All of society is getting more specialized, more complex, and more structured; all the time. It’s very neat.
老师: 再过几天，你就认不出这些了。它将成为一种全新的东西。他们不断地发展更加复杂和专业化的特性和工具，使他们具有优势。就这一点而言，不仅仅是虫子是这样工作的。整个社会一直在变得越来越专业化，越来越复杂，越来越有组织。非常整洁。
Student: I’m lost. First I told you about my little world and how I thought I understood it. So you showed me that my tiny world was actually a part of this much bigger world, with bigger laws and bigger structures. It was all new to me, but at least it made sense.
学生: 我迷路了。首先，我告诉你我的小世界，以及我是如何理解它的。所以你告诉我，我的小世界实际上是这个更大世界的一部分，有更大的法律和更大的结构。这对我来说是全新的，但至少它是有意义的。
But then you told me that none of those laws or facts are permanent; every organized rule and structure I take for granted will eventually run down into disorder.
但是后来你告诉我，这些法律和事实没有一个是永久的; 每一个我认为理所当然的有组织的规则和结构最终都会陷入混乱。
And now, you’re telling me the world is also getting more structured over time? That the world is constantly running up, and evolving into more complex structures and chaotic systems? Which is it? Is the world running down, or running up?
现在，你告诉我，随着时间的推移，这个世界也变得越来越有条理了？世界正在不断地向上运行，并演变成更加复杂的结构和混乱的系统？到底是哪一个？世界是在走下坡路，还是在走上坡路？
Teacher: Yes.
老师: 是的。
Student: What do you mean, “Yes?”
学生: “是的”是什么意思
Teacher: It’s all quite logical, really. Everything in this place can be explained through four simple rules. They’re written down on that sign over there.
老师: 这些都很合乎逻辑，真的。这个地方的一切都可以用四条简单的规则来解释。那边的牌子上写着呢。
Student: Order is Chaos? Chaos is order? Order without chaos… is disorder? And order without disorder… is disorder?
学生: 秩序就是混乱? 混乱就是秩序? 没有混乱的秩序... 就是无序? 没有无序的秩序... 就是无序？
None of these make sense to me. I don’t understand a single one. None of them feel like they could be possibly true. Am I stupid? Is there some riddle here I’m not getting?
这些对我来说都没有意义。我一点也不明白。他们没有一个人觉得他们可能是真的。我很蠢吗？是不是有什么谜语我没猜到？
Teacher: Don’t be discouraged. You’re making some important first steps of progress.
老师: 不要气馁，你正在迈出重要的第一步。
Student: I don’t feel like I’m making progress. I feel hopelessly confused.
学生: 我不觉得我在进步，我感到无可救药的困惑。
Teacher: You’re going through an important unlearning process. You’ve been carrying around a weight this whole time, called cause-and-effect thinking. Don’t feel bad; most people carry this weight around with them. It’s uncomfortable to unlearn, and you’ve taken an important first step. If you’re willing, I’d like to invite you to think about the world in a different way.
老师: 你正在经历一个重要的忘却过程。你一直背负着一个重量，这就是所谓的因果思维。不要感到难过，大多数人身上都带着这种重量。忘记是不舒服的，你已经迈出了重要的第一步。如果你愿意，我想邀请你用不同的方式来思考这个世界。
The student nodded, but still seemed upset. So the teacher led him back to their very first box, back to where he was familiar. His backpack of knowledge was still there, waiting for him.
那个学生点点头，但是看起来还是很沮丧。于是老师把他带回他们的第一个盒子，回到他熟悉的地方。他的知识背包还在那里，等着他。
Part.2
Teacher: Ok, let’s examine some of those things you told me about your village. I’d love to see what assumptions are behind them.
老师: 好的，让我们来看看你告诉我的关于你们村庄的一些事情。我很想看看他们背后的假设是什么。
Student: Okay, so like I said. When I look at all of these building blocks of what I know – how fast we walk, how we farm our food, and how big our village is – I see some pretty clear cause-and-effect relationships. A) this is how fast we walk, leads to B) how far out we can reach each day, leads to C) how large a harvest we can collect, leads to D) how large a village we can support. If it gets any bigger, we go hungry. Pretty clear to me.
学生: 好的，就像我说的。当我看着我所知道的所有这些基石——我们走路有多快，我们如何种植我们的食物，我们的村庄有多大——我看到了一些非常清晰的因果关系。A)这是我们走路的速度; b)我们每天能走多远; c)我们的收成有多少; d)我们能支撑多大的村庄。如果它再变大，我们就要挨饿了。对我来说很清楚了。
Teacher: Thank you for helping me see your thought process. You’re certainly more familiar with your village and your farming than I am. But I’m skeptical that this system actually works the way you’ve presented it. I have a strong suspicion that you’ve told me a just-so story.
老师: 谢谢你帮助我了解你的思维过程。你肯定比我更熟悉你的村庄和农场。但是我怀疑这个系统是否真的像你说的那样有效。我强烈怀疑你给我讲的故事不过如此。
Student: What’s a just-so story?
学生: 什么是普通的故事？
Teacher: Whenever you hear an explanation for why a system works the way it does, with a neat, tidy conclusion, and you hear an answer that goes, “because it is just so.”
老师: 每当你听到一个系统为什么会这样运作的解释，得出一个干净利落的结论，你就会听到一个答案，“因为它就是这样。”
As an example, you may have wondered: why do Giraffes have such long necks? If someone told you, “because that’s precisely how high the leaves on the savannah trees are”, that is in fact a correct observation. But you ought to be suspicious of any kind of cause-and-effect conclusion you draw from that. Both the giraffes and the trees live inside a system. Same with your village: your crops, your harvest, and your villagers all exist inside a system.
举个例子，你可能想知道: 为什么长颈鹿有这么长的脖子？如果有人告诉你，“因为这正是热带草原树叶的高度”，这实际上是一个正确的观察。但是你应该对你从中得出的任何因果关系的结论持怀疑态度。长颈鹿和树木都生活在一个系统中。你的村庄也是一样: 你的庄稼，你的收成，你的村民都存在于一个系统中。
Student: I’ll certainly agree with that. There are lots of factors in my village that go into the details of how we farm. I’ve learned about them over the course of my life. But I don’t see what’s in conflict with my cause-and-effect conclusion I laid out for you.
学生: 我当然同意。在我的村子里，有很多因素都涉及到我们如何耕种的细节。在我的一生中，我已经了解了他们。但是我并不认为这和我为你们提出的因果结论有什么冲突。
Teacher: Maybe I can show you something. How about we redraw our food system, except instead of focusing on causes and effects, first we start with something simple: what’s flowing through the system.
老师。也许我可以给你们看一些东西。我们重新画出我们的食物系统，但不要关注原因和结果，首先我们从简单的东西开始：什么在系统中流动。
Let’s zoom out and ask: what is the basic thing that flows all the way through the system, from the beginning to the end?
让我们缩小范围，问一问: 从开始到结束，贯穿整个系统的基本事物是什么？
Student: I’d say it’s nutrients. At the very beginning, energy and nutrients exist out in the world. And at the very end, they’re consumed by our metabolism. That’s the biggest picture I can think of, anyway.
学生: 我认为是营养物质。最初，能量和营养素存在于世界各地。最后，它们被我们的新陈代谢消耗掉了。无论如何，这是我能想到的最大的画面。
Teacher: Very good. I think that’s correct. We don’t need to worry about how the nutrients got into our environment; and we don’t really need to worry about what happens after we burn them as calories. So let’s draw those as clouds at either end of our system, with a pipe that flows from one end to the other. This is our starting point.Now, what’s the next thing we can add to our system? Do these nutrients accumulate anywhere in the middle?
老师: 很好。我想是的。我们不需要担心这些营养物质是如何进入我们的环境的，我们也不需要担心我们把它们作为卡路里燃烧之后会发生什么。那么让我们把它们画成我们系统两端的云，用一个从一端流向另一端的管道。这是我们的出发点。现在，我们可以添加到我们的系统的下一个东西是什么？这些营养素是否在中间的某个地方累积？
Student: Sure they do. I can think of at least two places. First, they accumulate in plants, in our crop yield that grows every season. And then after we harvest them, they sit around, before we steadily consume them.
学生: 当然。我至少能想到两个地方。首先，它们在植物中积累，在我们的作物产量中，每个季节都在增长。然后在我们收获它们之后，它们在我们稳定地消耗它们之前，无所事事。
Teacher: Looks good to me. These two components you’ve drawn here have names – flows, which flow at a certain rate, and stocks, which accumulate in a certain size. Stocks and flows are the basis for good system thinking. So we’re making progress.
老师: 我觉得不错。您在这里绘制的这两个组件有名称——以某种速度流动的流量和以某种规模积累的库存。库存和流量是良好系统思维的基础。所以我们正在取得进展。
Now why don’t we add in those variables we talked about before – our walking speed, and our village size – and let’s see where they land.
现在，为什么我们不把我们之前讨论过的那些变量——我们的步行速度，和我们的村庄大小——加进去，让我们看看它们应该放在哪里。
Student: OK. So, as I said before, our walking speed influences how far out from our village we can cover. So let’s draw that in. And our area covered matters, because our area times our crop yield equals our potential harvest.
学生: 好的。所以，正如我之前所说的，我们的步行速度影响着我们能走多远。让我们把它画进去。我们的区域覆盖了问题，因为我们的区域乘以我们的作物产量等于我们的潜在收成。
The other thing we’ve got to include here is our village size. Our village size affects the rate at which we can harvest our crops, and the rate at which we eat them.
这里还要包括我们的村庄面积。我们的村庄大小影响着我们收割庄稼的速度，以及我们吃庄稼的速度。
And now we’re back to my point I was making earlier. Our walking speed affects our coverage area. That affects our harvest. And our harvest size affects our villager population.
现在我们又回到了我之前提出的观点。我们的步行速度影响我们的覆盖面积。这会影响我们的收成。我们的收成影响了我们的村民人口。
Teacher: Again, I’m not challenging your claim that these factors are related to each other in some way. But what I am challenging is the idea of it being a fixed cause-and-effect relationship.
老师: 再说一遍，我并不是在质疑你所说的这些因素在某种程度上是相互关联的。但我挑战的是，这是一种固定的因果关系。
How about I ask you a different question. If your walking speed and coverage area is so critical to your well-being, why don’t you do something about it? For example, why don’t you have horses in your village that help you move around faster?
我问你另一个问题怎么样。如果你的步行速度和覆盖面积对你的健康至关重要，你为什么不做点什么呢？举个例子，为什么你的村子里没有能帮助你快速移动的马呢？
Student: That’s a great question. We’ve actually thought about this a lot. Let me show you by drawing it out in our system.
学生: 这是个很好的问题。事实上我们已经考虑了很多。让我通过在我们的系统中绘制它来展示给你看。
If we added horses to our village, they would increase our coverage area. But they also eat food; way more than a person does. We’ve done the math on this: adding horses to our village, even if it increases our crop coverage area, wouldn’t actually increase the population size we could support. Without enough food, it puts pressure on our village population, or our horses, or both.
如果我们增加马匹到我们的村庄，他们将增加我们的覆盖面积。但是他们也吃东西，比一个人吃得多。我们已经计算过了: 给我们的村庄增加马匹，即使它增加了我们的农作物覆盖面积，实际上也不会增加我们可以养活的人口数量。如果没有足够的食物，它会给我们的村民或者我们的马，或者两者都带来压力。
Teacher: I’d like to highlight something important you’ve drawn here, which are these dotted lines looping back that keep the villager and horse populations in check. I’m glad to see you include this: this is negative feedback. It’s how systems find a steady state, and remain there consistently.
老师: 我想强调一下你们在这里画的一些重要的东西，这些虚线是用来控制村民和马匹数量的。我很高兴看到你包括这个: 这是负面反馈。这就是系统如何找到一个稳定的状态，并始终保持在那里。
In this case, the negative feedback loops keep the horse population at zero. And that matches with your real life experience, which is that the village doesn’t have any horses – and from what you’re telling me, has no interest in getting any.
在这种情况下，负反馈循环使马群保持在零。这与你的真实生活经历相吻合，那就是这个村庄没有马——而且据你所说，根本没有兴趣得到任何马。
Student: That’s right. Horses consume more net harvest than they create, so they don’t make sense.
学生: 没错，马消耗的净收成比它们创造的要多，所以它们没有意义。
Teacher: Let me challenge you here. Remember when we met the nomads? They had a lot of horses. Any idea why?
老师: 让我来挑战你。还记得我们遇到游牧民族的时候吗？他们有很多马。知道为什么吗？
Student: They did, that’s true. I guess they live in a different environment than we do. We’re in the fertile valley, whereas they’re up on the steppe where it’s cold and plants don’t grow very fast. So the rate of nutrients flowing into crops is much slower. Let’s draw that in.
学生: 是的，没错。我猜他们生活在一个与我们不同的环境中。我们在肥沃的山谷里，而他们在寒冷的大草原上，植物生长不快。因此，养分流入作物的速度要慢得多。让我们把它画进去。
Aha, I see it now. Since the nomads are in a harsh environment, their crop yield per acre is lower than ours, so they need a bigger coverage area to get any harvest at all. So they have to have horses. And although that doesn’t leave much food left over for a large village, they at least get to eat something. Their system is different than ours; and they’ve found a different steady state.
啊哈，我现在明白了。由于牧民生活在恶劣的环境中，他们每英亩的作物产量低于我们，所以他们需要更大的覆盖面积才能获得任何收获。所以他们必须有马。虽然这并没有给一个大村庄留下多少食物，但他们至少可以吃点东西。他们的系统与我们的不同，他们找到了一个不同的稳态。
Teacher: So what does this tell you about the relationship between your walking speed and your village size?
老师: 那么这告诉了你什么关于你的步行速度和你的村庄大小之间的关系？
Student: I see what you meant before about it being a “just-so story”. It’s not a cause-and-effect relationship like I’d believed before. The system is circular; it doesn’t start or end anywhere. But what matters is that we’ve found a steady state for our food system, and the nomads have found a totally different steady state for theirs. And when we saw the big bustling city, they had their own steady state too; that supported way more people, and I’m sure worked quite differently than either of ours.
学生: 我明白你之前所说的“一般的故事”是什么意思了。这不是我以前认为的因果关系。这个系统是循环的，它不会在任何地方开始或结束。但重要的是，我们为我们的食物系统找到了一个稳定的状态，而游牧民族为他们的食物系统找到了一个完全不同的稳定状态。当我们看到这个熙熙攘攘的大城市时，他们也有了自己的稳定状态，这种稳定状态支撑着更多的人，我敢肯定，他们的工作方式与我们的完全不同。
Teacher: Let me ask you something. You’re using this word, “steady state”, that’s an important concept. Why are these systems stable?
老师: 我问你一个问题。你在用“稳定状态”这个词，这是一个很重要的概念。为什么这些系统是稳定的？
Student: Well… at least for us, our system is stable because we’ve always got to eat. If we stopped eating, then this whole system would go away and eventually be forgotten. Our food system persists because it’s never at rest. There’s always flow going through the system, because we’re always hungry. Same goes for the nomads, or anyone.
学生: 至少对我们来说，我们的系统是稳定的，因为我们总是要吃东西。如果我们停止进食，那么整个系统就会消失，最终被遗忘。我们的食物系统之所以存在，是因为它从不休息。因为我们总是饥肠辘辘，所以流动总是在整个系统中流动。对于游牧民或任何人来说都是一样的。
Teacher: You’re a quick learner. That’s exactly right. These systems are stable and orderly, year after year, not because they’re at rest – but because they’re continuously flowing. This is an important foundational concept: order emerges in the steady-states of non-equilibrium systems.
老师: 你学东西很快。完全正确。这些系统年复一年地稳定有序，不是因为它们处于休息状态，而是因为它们不断地流动。这是一个重要的基本概念: 秩序出现在非平衡系统的稳态中。
Student: Order emerges… in the steady-states… of non-equilibrium systems. I think I get it. The driving purpose of our orderly food system, with its predictable flows and stocks, is that we always have to keep eating. The fact that our system is out of equilibrium is why it’s stable. That’s counterintuitive. But it makes deep sense to me.
学生：秩序出现在......非平衡系统的稳定状态中。我想我明白了。我们有序的食物系统的驱动目的，以及它可预测的流量和存量，在于我们总是要继续吃。我们的系统处于非平衡状态的事实就是它稳定的原因。这是违反直觉的。但对我来说，这很有意义。
Teacher: That’s why it’s so important we started our system diagram with those two clouds on either end – the nutrients on one side, and the metabolism on the other side. If those didn’t exist, and our system were completely closed, then eventually it would find some equilibrium point, and stop flowing. And, especially when it comes to metabolism, you don’t want to be at equilibrium. That means you’re dead.
老师: 这就是为什么我们在开始系统图时，两端各有一个云，一端是营养物质，另一端是新陈代谢。如果它们不存在，我们的系统完全封闭，那么最终它会找到一些平衡点，停止流动。而且，尤其是在新陈代谢方面，你不想处于平衡状态。这意味着你已经死了。
Student: But hold on. Some things must be stable and at rest, though. Like, what about this big building that the city market is in? That’s pretty inert. It’s not part of some living system; it’s just a building made of bricks. It sits there.
学生: 等一下。不过，有些东西必须是稳定和安静的。比如，城市市场所在的这座大楼怎么样？这是相当惰性的。它不是某个生命系统的一部分，它只是一座砖砌的建筑。它就在那儿。
Teacher: Are you sure? Why did it get built? Who takes care of it? Why has its identity remained consistent over time? Why do people keep coming back to it every day to market their food, with consistent purpose, for so many years?
老师: 你确定吗？为什么要建造它？谁来照顾它？为什么它的特性会随着时间的推移而保持一致？为什么这么多年来，人们每天都带着一致的目的回来推销他们的食物呢？
Student: Got it. So if the building were actually at rest, it would be ignored, and would eventually crumble into dirt. But it’s not at rest. The building is stable because people actively maintain it; because it has a purpose. It’s part of a system that keeps flowing, called “the food market”, which is the people who are motivated to keep going there, and keep rebuilding it, and keep it in a consistent steady state and consistent identity for years and years.
学生: 知道了。因此，如果这座建筑真的处于静止状态，它就会被忽略，最终化为尘土。但它不是静止的。建筑物之所以稳定，是因为人们积极地维护它; 因为它有一个目的。这是一个不断流动的系统的一部分，这个系统被称为“食品市场”，这些人有动力继续去那里，继续重建它，并且年复一年地保持一个一致的稳定状态和一致的身份。
And when we look at really big systems that seem so consistent, like the sun always rises every morning; that’s pretty consistent everywhere. But that’s just a big, old system we’re all inside, that’s in a really reliable steady state. That’s why it’s so predictable to us.
当我们观察那些看起来非常一致的大系统时，比如太阳总是每天早上升起；这在任何地方都是一致的。但是那只是一个我们都在其中的庞大而古老的系统，它处于一个非常可靠的稳定状态。这就是为什么它对我们来说是如此的可预测。
Teacher: You’re absolutely right.
老师: 你说得太对了。
Student: I just realized something. The first time you showed me the great big world, I thought you were teaching me that I was thinking small and I needed to think big. I felt like I was small and silly for only seeing my little boxes, and that by learning the laws of the universe I became wiser and enlightened. Now I realize that this wasn’t really your lesson at all, was it.
学生: 我刚刚意识到一件事。当你第一次向我展示这个伟大的大世界时，我以为你在教导我，我的思维是狭隘的，我需要从大处着眼。我觉得自己又小又傻，只看到自己的小盒子，通过学习宇宙的法则，我变得更加聪明和开明。现在我意识到这根本不是你的课，不是吗。
Teacher: That’s right.
老师: 是的。
Student: What you were actually showing me, by revealing all of the different people and places and practices out in the world, is how many different systems there are, and how differently systems can organize themselves, yet still be in equally valid and happy steady states.
学生: 通过揭示世界上所有不同的人、地方和实践，你实际上向我展示的是，有多少不同的系统，以及不同的系统可以如何组织自己，但仍然处于同样有效和快乐的稳定状态。
So it’s not like ‘inside the box you’re dumb and outside the box you’re smart’. There are actually an infinite number of different boxes and arrangements and possible systems that could emerge in the world.
所以，这不像是‘在盒子里你是哑巴，在盒子外面你是聪明的’。事实上，世界上有无数不同的盒子、安排和可能出现的系统。
The point of exploring them is to understand their diversity, and the infinite number of different ways they can find steady states, not some deterministic laws of cause and effect. And when you bring along all of your backpack of knowledge, full of experience from systems you already know, and then explore a new one, you gain some remarkable new perspectives.
探索它们的意义在于了解它们的多样性，以及它们能够找到稳定状态的无数种不同方法，而不是某些确定的因果定律。当你带着你所有的知识背包，从你已经知道的系统中获得的经验，然后探索一个新的系统，你会获得一些非凡的新视角。
Teacher: It’s a real gift, isn’t it. Once you see it that way, the whole world opens up as a place of infinite possibility, rather than defined boundaries.
老师: 这是一个真正的礼物，不是吗。一旦你这样看待它，整个世界就变成了一个充满无限可能性的地方，而不是一个明确的界限。
Student: Yep. But there’s something I don’t understand yet. And that’s why you showed me the bugs.
学生: 是的。但是有些事情我还不明白。这就是为什么你给我看了那些虫子。
Part.3
Teacher: The bugs certainly don’t seem like they’re in a steady state, do they.
老师: 这些虫子看起来不像是处于稳定状态，是吗。
Student: Not at all. They’re growing, evolving, and changing their environment all the time. It looks pretty chaotic and unpredictable. Maybe we can illustrate this with another system diagram. I’m not sure where to start though.
学生: 一点也不。它们一直在成长，进化，改变着它们的环境。它看起来相当混乱和不可预测。也许我们可以用另一个系统图来说明这一点。我不知道该从哪里开始。
Teacher: Well, what is the main thing flowing through the system?
老师: 那么，在整个系统中流动的主要东西是什么？
Student: I think it’s also nutrients. What’s a bug, after all, other than a sophisticated system for turning nutrients into more bugs?
学生: 我认为它也是营养物质。毕竟，除了一个将营养物质转化为更多细菌的复杂系统，细菌还有什么？
Ok so let’s draw this out. Nutrients start their lives out in the environment just like before; and they end their lives consumed by the bugs’ metabolism. In between we’ve got a couple of stocks where it’ll accumulate along the way.
好，我们把这个画出来。营养物质就像以前一样在环境中开始它们的生命，然后它们的生命就被虫子的新陈代谢消耗掉了。在这两者之间，我们有两个库存，它会在途中积累。
And let’s also put a large stock of bugs called Bug Population, which affects how quickly the nutrients get eaten.
让我们也把一个大的虫子库称为虫群，这影响了营养物质被吃掉的速度。
Teacher: Anything else we know about that affects this stock-and-flow system?
老师: 我们还知道什么会影响这种存货流通系统？
Student: Sure. So the bugs live in a complex environment; they don’t have it easy. There are predators who eat the bugs. And there are competitors, who eat the bug food. The larger either of those stocks get, the more pressure it puts on the bug population.
学生: 当然。所以这些虫子生活在一个复杂的环境中; 他们并不容易。有食肉动物吃虫子。还有一些竞争者，他们吃虫子的食物。这两种库存的数量越多，对虫子数量的压力就越大。
Teacher: So far this looks good. But let’s get to the important part here, which is the fact that the bugs reproduce and evolve. There’s an important concept we haven’t talked about yet, called positive feedback.
老师: 到目前为止看起来还不错。但是让我们来看看这里最重要的部分，这就是虫子繁殖和进化的事实。有一个重要的概念，我们还没有谈到，所谓的积极反馈。
Student: Ok, let’s draw this out carefully. Bugs reproduce by laying eggs. When they’re happy and eating lots, they lay a lot of eggs. Then, those eggs hatch into baby bugs at a certain rate, and they flow into the mature bug population.
学生: 好，让我们仔细地画出来。虫子通过产卵繁殖。当它们快乐的时候，吃得多，它们就会下很多蛋。然后，这些卵以一定的速度孵化成幼虫，并流入成熟的虫群。
That’s a reinforcing cycle. More of the same makes more of the same. If it goes on forever, you get infinite bugs. So clearly that must stop somewhere; either because they run out of nutrients, or the predators, or too much competition, or something.
这是一个不断加强的循环。同样的东西越多，同样的东西就越多。如果它一直持续下去，你就会得到无限的虫子。所以很明显，它们必须在某个地方停下来，要么是因为它们缺乏营养，要么是因为它们的捕食者，要么是因为竞争太激烈，或者其他什么原因。
Teacher: Now remember, the bugs don’t just reproduce; they also learn and evolve. They’re actively learning how to change their environment to their advantage, aren’t they.
老师: 请记住，这些虫子不仅仅是繁殖，它们还会学习和进化。他们正在积极地学习如何改变他们的环境，使之成为他们的优势，不是吗。
Student: You’re right. Not only do the bugs make more bugs; they make more evolved bugs. And those evolved bugs are making tools and technology to alter their environment. Some of their tools help defend them against predators; some of their tools help them grow bug food faster.
学生: 你是对的。这些虫子不仅制造了更多的虫子，还进化出了更多的虫子。这些进化出来的虫子正在制造工具和技术来改变他们的环境。它们的一些工具可以帮助它们抵御捕食者; 它们的一些工具可以帮助它们更快地种植昆虫食物。
The bug ecosystem is totally thriving. Lots of food means lots of eggs, lots of new bugs, and more evolved bugs. This system seems like it could totally go on for a long time; now that the bugs have learned how to build technology and alter their environment for their benefit. I can’t say for certain that any of the environment around them will survive intact, mind you.
虫子生态系统正在蓬勃发展。大量的食物意味着大量的卵，许多新的虫子，以及更多进化出来的虫子。这个系统看起来完全可以持续很长一段时间; 现在虫子们已经学会了如何构建技术，并且为了自己的利益改变环境。提醒你一下，我不能肯定他们周围的任何环境都能完好无损地存活下来。
So I guess I’d say that the long-term order and stability of the bugs – so, in other words, the fact that bugs can perpetually make more of themselves in a predictable way – feels inseparable from the environment around them being unpredictable.
所以我想说，虫子的长期秩序和稳定性——换句话说，虫子可以以可预测的方式永久地使自己变得更好——感觉与它们周围的环境是不可分割的，因为它们是不可预测的。
Teacher: Hold up. There’s a lot in what you said just there. I want to make sure this doesn’t fly by without us noticing. Maybe we’d better critically examine what you mean by “predictable” and “unpredictable”.
老师：等一下。你刚才说的有很多内容。我想确保这不会在我们没有注意到的情况下忽略。也许我们最好仔细研究一下你说的 "可预测 "和 "不可预测 "是什么意思。
Student: Right. So, when I’m saying that the bugs are “predictable”, I mean that what I see now – bugs making more bugs – is a pretty good prediction of what tomorrow’s or next year’s bugs will look like. Just like how our farm was orderly – our farm this year is pretty representative of our farm next year. Or the building that hosts the market is predictable – the building today accurately portrays what the building is likely to be tomorrow, with maybe only small changes.
学生: 对。所以，当我说这些虫子是“可预测的”时，我的意思是我现在看到的—— 虫子制造更多的虫子 ——是对明天或明年的虫子将会是什么样子的一个非常好的预测。就像我们的农场井然有序一样，我们今年的农场是我们明年农场的一个很好的代表。或者主办市场的建筑是可以预测的——今天的建筑准确地描绘了建筑明天可能的样子，也许只有很小的变化。
The order comes from self-perpetuation. There’s always something driving the system forward, so that like makes like.
顺序来自于自我延续，总有一些东西在推动系统前进，所以喜欢就会产生喜欢。
But the environment around the bugs is not predictable. Tiny changes today might cascade into massive changes in the future, because positive feedback can amply things so powerfully. Look, we can see the bugs right in front of us; they’re radically altering the ecosystem around them, with all these interesting second-order effects.
但是这些漏洞周围的环境是不可预测的。今天的微小变化可能会在未来产生巨大的变化，因为积极的反馈可以给事物带来强大的力量。看，我们可以看到这些虫子就在我们面前; 它们正在彻底地改变它们周围的生态系统，带有所有这些有趣的二级效应。
This must be what they mean by “chaos”. Tiny movements on one side of our system drive really big changes on the other, and those big changes drive other changes in our system somewhere else.
这一定就是他们所说的“混乱”。我们系统一侧的微小变化在另一侧推动真正的巨大变化，而这些巨大变化在其他地方推动我们系统的其他变化。
Teacher: How would you describe the difference between order and chaos?
老师: 你如何描述秩序和混乱的区别？
Student: Hmm. This feels like an important question. I want to say, based on my experience, that systems are either orderly or they’re chaotic. But given our conversation so far, I’m getting this nagging feeling like that’s not true. It feels suspiciously like calling systems orderly or chaotic is actually a symptom of cause-and-effect thinking that I need to move past.
学生: 嗯。这似乎是一个很重要的问题。我想说，根据我的经验，系统要么是有序的，要么是混乱的。但鉴于我们迄今为止的谈话，我感到这种令人不安的感觉似乎不是真的。这让人觉得让系统有秩序或者混乱实际上是因果关系思维的一种症状，我需要超越它。
Teacher: Go on.
老师: 继续。
Student: Just now, when we went back to look at the bugs, the big idea we introduced was positive feedback. Like makes like. Bugs make more bugs. It’s a driving force, it’s like a sense of purpose for this corner of our system.
学生: 刚才，当我们回头看这些虫子的时候，我们介绍的大概念是正反馈。喜欢就是喜欢。虫子会制造更多的虫子。它是一种驱动力，就像是我们系统这个角落的一种使命感。
When we introduced this idea, I’d initially thought of positive feedback as this driver of order; like it drives alignment in a system. When I see bugs reproducing today, I know that I will see bugs reproducing tomorrow, and the day after that. When a group of people align around a purpose, that’s a kind of order.
当我们介绍这个想法的时候，我最初认为正反馈是秩序的驱动力，就像它驱动系统的调整一样。当我看到今天的虫子繁殖，我知道明天我会看到虫子繁殖，后天也是。当一群人围绕着一个目标联合起来，这就是一种秩序。
But at the same time, positive feedback seems so dangerous and chaotic. When something in a system makes more and more of itself, that can rip the system apart, in some way you’ll never ever be able to predict. Positive feedback is clearly the driver behind systems that tip into chaos; like crowds that panic, or non-native species that invade new ecosystems. When a group of people all suddenly align around an idea or a purpose, that can be really unpredictable.
但与此同时，正反馈看起来是如此的危险和混乱。当一个系统中的某个东西越来越自我膨胀的时候，这个系统就会分崩离析，在某种程度上你永远无法预测。积极的反馈显然是导致系统陷入混乱的驱动力，就像恐慌的人群，或者入侵新生态系统的非本土物种。当一群人突然围绕一个想法或一个目标联合起来的时候，那真的是不可预测的。
I’m not sure how to resolve these two ideas. But I know they both have something to do with growth, and with evolution. The bugs are a positive feedback system that makes the future both more predictable and more unpredictable. Depending on where you’re looking. Again, this feels like a cause-and-effect symptom that’s trying to fight for its life, as I’m trying to shake it off.
我不知道如何解决这两个问题。但是我知道它们都与成长和进化有关。这些错误是一个积极的反馈系统，使未来更加可预测和不可预测。这取决于你在看哪里。再次强调，这感觉就像是一个因果关系的症状，我正在努力摆脱它，试图与它的生命抗争。
Teacher: I’m glad you mentioned that word, evolution. You’re on the right track. Is there anything we saw, in our travels together, that might resolve this paradox for us?
老师: 我很高兴你提到了进化这个词。你的方向是对的。在我们一起旅行的过程中，有没有什么东西可以为我们解决这个悖论呢？
Student: Maybe. You know what, this actually reminds me of when we saw the city by the sea, that seemed so strange and advanced to me.
学生。也许吧。你知道吗，这实际上让我想起了我们看到海边的城市时，那对我来说似乎很奇怪和先进。
That city, and the market, and the whole system around it evolved, just like the bugs evolved. That market evolved because people need to eat; and it keeps existing because people continue eating. It has an ongoing purpose.
那个城市，那个市场，还有它周围的整个系统都在进化，就像虫子一样。这个市场的发展是因为人们需要吃东西; 而它的存在是因为人们继续吃东西。它有一个持续的目标。
But that’s true for farming too. The market didn’t displace farming. It emerged as a new layer on top of farming.
但农业也是如此。市场没有取代农业。它作为农业之上的新层出现了。
Student: I’m not going to try to work out the new steady states it might find right now. But I’m sure that as the market evolves and settles into its own steady state layer, the Farming Layer next door responds by finding a new steady state of its own, and adjusting its purpose. That must have been an interesting transition.
学生: 我不打算计算，它现在可能找到的新稳态。但是我确信，随着市场的发展和进入它自己的稳定状态层，隔壁的农业层通过找到它自己的新的稳定状态，并调整它的用途作出反应。那一定是一个有趣的转变。
Teacher: You’re on the verge of completing this breakthrough, and I want to push you here. I want you to think about that phrase from before: Order emerges in the steady-state of non-equilibrium systems. Remember that? It was a big concept.
老师: 你就要完成这个突破了，我想把你推到这里。我想让你们回想一下之前的那句话: 秩序在非平衡系统的稳态中出现。还记得吗？这是一个很大的概念。
Now I want you to take that concept and tell me about the bugs, and how the bugs evolve.
现在我想让你们接受这个概念，告诉我有关虫子的事情，以及虫子是如何演化的。
Student: Ok, the bugs are a layered system, just like the farm and the market. Their metabolism, cells, tissues, organs, and individual selves are all layers with their own systems in steady state. And beyond the individual bugs, they organize into communities, they make tools, they invent technologies. Each of these layers is its own system with its own purpose, but they all exist in context with all the other layers.
学生: 好的，虫子是一个分层的系统，就像农场和市场一样。它们的新陈代谢、细胞、组织、器官和个体本身都是各自系统处于稳定状态的层次。除了单个的错误，他们组织成社区，他们制造工具，他们发明技术。每个层都是自己的系统，有自己的目的，但是它们都与所有其他层一起存在于上下文中。
So maybe we should attach an addendum to our motto: if order emerges in the steady-state of non-equilibrium systems, then evolution is about emerging, multi-layered steady-states of non-equilibrium systems.
因此，也许我们应该在我们的座右铭上加一个附录: 如果有序在非平衡系统的稳态中出现，那么进化就是关于非平衡系统的多层次稳态的出现。
Teacher: I couldn’t have said it any better myself.
老师: 我自己也说不出更好的了。
Student: I think I suddenly see my problem. It’s a problem with the way I’ve been using language, and with the words “predictable” and “unpredictable”. I’ve been using the terms in my old cause-and-effect way, like A predictably causes B and then C, or A unpredictably causes “?”. The problem was the word cause!
学生: 我想我突然发现了我的问题。这是我使用语言的方式的问题，也是“可预测”和“不可预测”这两个词的问题。我一直在用我以前的因果关系方式使用这些术语，比如 a 可预见地导致 b，然后 c，或者 a 不可预见地导致“ ?”.问题在于“原因”这个词！
I see now. That’s why you asked me to critically examine the words “predictable” and “unpredictable”. I guess I didn’t totally pass that test; I still had some lingering cause-and-effect symptoms. I’m not 100% sure how to recharacterize them, though.
我现在明白了。这就是为什么你让我批判性地审视“可预测”和“不可预测”这两个词。我想我没有完全通过那个测试; 我仍然有一些挥之不去的因果症状。不过，我不是100% 确定如何重新描述它们。
Teacher: Maybe we can find a good definition together. Tell me: where do layers come from? I think you already know everything you need to answer this.
老师: 也许我们可以一起找到一个好的定义。告诉我: 层是从哪里来的？我想你已经知道你需要回答的所有问题了。
Student: When I think about the market as a layer that emerged; it came from positive feedback. The market is a great idea; so it perpetuates itself, and makes more of itself; and copies itself across many different cities and use cases. So at some point it made sense to think of it as its own layer, distinct from farming; and to think of it as having found its own steady state.
学生: 当我把市场想象成一个出现的层面，它来自于积极的反馈。市场是一个伟大的想法，所以它延续了自己，使自己更多，并在许多不同的城市和用例中复制自己。因此，在某种程度上，把它看作是自己的一层，有别于农业；并且认为它已经找到了自己的稳定状态。
And when I think about the bugs, I guess the lowest “layer” I can think of is probably the bug’s metabolism; which is basically the part of the bug that eats, in a really primitive sense. But at some point, some aspect of the bug’s metabolism started making more of itself, and more and more, and at some point it made sense to call that a “cell”. And then as the cells made more of themselves, they became organ systems and then bugs and then bug communities.
当我想到虫子的时候，我想我能想到的最底层可能是虫子的新陈代谢，基本上就是虫子吃的那部分，从最原始的意义上来说。但在某种程度上，这种细菌的新陈代谢的某些方面开始产生更多的自身，并且越来越多，在某种程度上，称之为“细胞”是有意义的。然后，随着细胞自我生成的增多，它们变成了器官系统，然后是虫子，最后是虫子群落。
So I guess where you were probably hoping I’d get to is, new layers emerge from positive feedback cycles. When something persists, and makes more and more of itself, and starts to significantly change the system around it, it starts making sense to call it its own layer. And that’s useful for us, because we can try to understand that layer as its own little system that’s found a steady state, or is on its way to finding one.
所以我猜想你们可能希望我到达的地方是，积极的反馈循环会产生新的层次。当某些东西持续存在，并且越来越多地自我增强，并且开始显著地改变它周围的系统时，它开始有意义地称它为自己的层。这对我们很有用，因为我们可以试着把这个层理解为它自己的小系统，它已经找到了一个稳定的状态，或者正在找到一个稳定的状态。
Teacher: So, when do you think a layer officially becomes a layer? What gives a new layer its identity, as it comes into its own?
老师: 那么，你认为什么时候一个图层正式成为一个图层？是什么赋予了一个新的层面以它自己的身份？
Student: I mean, I’m not sure you can formally draw a line and say, before this line it’s not a layer and after the line it is. But I can say this: before crossing the line, there’s no way to know what the layer will be. And after the line, we know what the layer is, because the layer has a purpose.
学生: 我的意思是，我不确定你能正式地画一条线，然后说，在这条线之前它不是一层，在这条线之后它是。但是我可以这样说: 在穿越这条线之前，没有办法知道这层是什么。在这条线之后，我们知道这个层是什么，因为这个层有它的用途。
We can say, the purpose of the farming layer is getting nutrients into plants and plants into harvests. The purpose of the market is getting harvests into baskets. The purpose of the bugs’ metabolism is consuming calories. The bugs’ tools have purpose, and their community has purpose. Every layer has a purpose.
我们可以说，农耕层的作用就是把养分输入植物，把植物转化为收成。市场的目的是把收成变成篮子。这些细菌新陈代谢的目的就是消耗热量。虫子的工具有目的，他们的社区也有目的。每一层都有目的。
And we know these layers have continuous purpose, because they’re not in equilibrium. They flow. That is their purpose. And we know they’re out of equilibrium because the layers around them are out of equilibrium. All the way down to the bug’s metabolism; or the plants’ nutrients; and then if you go down further than that, all the way down to the furnace of the universe.
我们知道这些层有连续的作用，因为它们不处于平衡状态。它们流动着。这就是他们的目的。我们知道它们失去了平衡，因为它们周围的层都失去了平衡。一直到虫子的新陈代谢，或者植物的营养，然后如果你再往下走，一直到宇宙的熔炉。
Huh.
哈。
Oh wow.
哦，哇。
The student fell silent for a minute.
学生沉默了一会儿。
Student: Okay. Let me collect my thoughts for a second. But I think things fell into place. I think I understand the Four Rules now.
学生: 好的。让我整理一下思绪。但我认为事情已经有了眉目。我想我现在明白四条规则了。
Part.4
Student: Okay, I think I’m ready. I’m going to try to get all the way through the logic of how Dancoland works.
学生: 好的，我想我准备好了。我将尝试通过所有的方式来了解 Dancoland 是如何工作的。
Teacher: I can’t wait. Let’s hear it.
老师: 我等不及了，让我们听听。
Student: So, over the course of our journey together, you’ve shown me different systems that have found steady states. Before we met, I’d believed that this idea of “steady state” was somehow synonymous with the idea of “equilibrium”. But that was wrong: systems find their orderly steady state when they’re out of equilibrium, because they flow. They’re in motion. They have a purpose.
学生: 在我们的旅程中，你们向我展示了不同的系统，它们都有稳定的状态。在我们相遇之前，我认为这种“稳态”的概念在某种程度上等同于“均衡”的概念。但这是错误的: 当系统失去平衡时，它们会找到有序的稳定状态，因为它们是流动的。他们正在行动。他们有自己的目标。
That makes sense to me now. But there’s one adjustment I want to make to this idea. And that’s to clarify something important: steady state doesn’t mean static, either. These systems aren’t flowing monotonously; it’s more like they’re breathing. They’re looping.
现在我明白了。但是我想对这个想法做一个调整。这就澄清了一个重要的事实: 稳定状态也不意味着静态。这些系统不是单调地流动，而更像是它们在呼吸。他们在循环。
Think about every system we saw together: the farm, the nomads, the market, the bugs. All of these orderly systems are actually looping. The farm loops each year through growing, harvesting, regenerating, and planting seasons. The market loops each day through setting up, trading bustle, cleaning up, and preparing for the next day.
想想我们一起看到的每一个系统: 农场，游牧民族，市场，虫子。所有这些有序系统实际上都是循环的。农场每年通过种植、收获、再生和种植季节循环往复。市场每天循环往复，通过设置，交易喧闹，清理，并为第二天做准备。
Teacher: I’m listening. This feels promising.
老师: 我在听，感觉很有希望。
Student: Looping systems have one big rule. At the end of the loop, you have to end up back where you started. Something gets accomplished in between – things move through the system, like nutrients move through plants and into harvests. But at the end of the loop, the farm is back to where it started.
学生: 循环系统有一个很重要的规则。在循环结束时，您必须返回开始的地方。有些东西在这两者之间完成——物质在系统中移动，就像营养物质在植物中移动，进入收成。但是在循环的最后，农场又回到了它开始的地方。
Year after year, the farm flows consistently, and it loops persistently. That’s why we say the farm has a consistent purpose. It loops in a way that accomplishes something, while repeatedly returning to where it started.
年复一年，农场持续不断地流动，并且不断地循环。这就是为什么我们说农场有一个一致的目的。它以某种方式循环完成某件事情，同时反复返回开始的地方。
This idea got harder to follow when we started talking about the bugs. The bugs reproduce and evolve through positive feedback. I really understood how the bugs had purpose, and how that purpose coexisted with – and often, challenged – the other systems in the environment around the bugs.
当我们开始讨论虫子的时候，这个想法变得难以理解。这些虫子通过积极的反馈进行繁殖和进化。我真正理解了虫子是如何有目的的，以及这个目的是如何与环境中围绕虫子的其他系统共存的，并且经常面临挑战。
But those other flowing systems in the environment around the bugs are trying to loop too. By purposefully making more and more of themselves, the bugs challenged and sometimes dominated the other loops, and threw those loops off into new directions.
但虫子周围环境中的那些其他流动系统也在试图循环。通过有目的地制造越来越多的自己，虫子挑战并有时主导了其他的循环，并把这些循环抛向新的方向。
That’s when, if you remember, I said that one sentence where you interrupted me; you said stop, this is really important to get right.
如果你还记得的话，就是在那时，我说了一句你打断我的话; 你说停下来，这真的很重要。
Teacher: I do remember that.
老师: 我记得。
Student: I said, “The fact that bugs can perpetually make more of themselves in a predictable way – feels inseparable from the environment around them being unpredictable.”
学生: 我说过，“事实上，虫子可以以一种可预测的方式，永久地让自己变得更好，感觉和他们周围的环境是不可分割的，是不可预测的。”
Teacher: Correct.
老师: 正确。
Student: Remember how much I struggled here? I was having a hard time superimposing the idea of order – (“like causes like, predictably perpetuated, forward in time”) and chaos (“small inputs unpredictably cause massive consequences”). It’s like, are the bugs making the world more predictable, or unpredictable?
学生: 记得我在这里挣扎了多久吗？我很难把秩序的概念和混乱的概念叠加起来(“像原因一样，可以预见地延续下去，在时间中前进”)。这就像是，是虫子让世界变得更可预测，还是更不可预测？
But then I figured it out, and the breakthrough came from a surprising place. It’s such a simple answer, it was hiding right there, in plain sight. And now I know how to show it to you.
但是后来我弄明白了，这个突破来自一个令人惊讶的地方。这是一个如此简单的答案，它就藏在那里，在显而易见的地方。现在我知道怎么向你展示了。
Teacher: How so?
老师: 为什么？
Student: Come walk around with me.
学生: 过来和我一起走走。
The teacher came over, and they resumed walking together.
老师走了过来，他们继续一起散步。
Student: You see, this whole time, we’ve been walking around. At first I was just enjoying the exercise, but I began to enjoy seeing what we’ve drawn together, and what we’ve learned, from all of these different vantage points. But then just now, I realized something. Come over here, step into this middle loop with me. From the point of view of the purposeful bugs, what do you see when you look out?
学生: 你看，一直以来，我们都在四处走动。一开始我只是享受这个过程，但是我开始享受看到我们一起画的东西，以及我们从所有这些不同的有利位置所学到的东西。但就在刚才，我意识到了一些事情。过来，和我一起进入这个中间的循环。从有目的的错误的角度来看，当你观察的时候你看到了什么？
Teacher: I see chaos. Everything around me is changing all the time, in unpredictable ways. My purpose is chaotic.
老师: 我看到了混乱。我周围的一切都在以不可预知的方式变化着。我的人生目标是混乱的。
Student: Okay, now let’s walk out of the loop, and look back in. Now what do you see, when you look at where you just were?
学生: 好，现在让我们走出这个循环，回头看。现在你看到了什么，当你看到你刚才在哪里？
Teacher: I see order. I see the relentless, predictable drive of the bugs, who keep looping and looping with consistent purpose. The purpose is orderly.
老师：我看到了秩序。我看到了虫子们无情的、可预测的驱动力，它们带着一致的目的不断地循环往复。这个目的是有秩序的。
Student: And what does that tell you?
学生: 这说明了什么？
Teacher: It tells me that… oh hey! I see it now! Order and Chaos are just two different perspectives on the same thing!
老师: 它告诉我... ... 哦，嘿！我现在看到了！秩序和混乱只是对同一件事情的两种不同的观点！
When we say “Order” that means Purpose, from the Outside Looking In.
当我们说“秩序”，意思是目的，从外面看。
And when we say “Chaos”, that means Purpose, from the Inside Looking Out.
当我们说“混乱”，这意味着目的，从内部看出来。
Student: I’m thrilled this is resonating. You never know if something actually makes sense until you can get someone else to explain it back to you.
学生: 我很高兴这能引起共鸣。你永远不会知道某件事情是否有意义，直到你能让别人回过头来解释给你听。
Here’s how I understand it:
以下是我对它的理解:
The ideas of “Order” and “Chaos” aren’t opposites at all. They’re both describing the same thing, but from mirror points of view. They’re describing purpose – the drive of a positive feedback loop in a world of other driven loops.
“秩序”和“混乱”的概念根本不是对立的。他们都在描述同一件事，只不过是从镜像的角度。他们描述的是目的——在一个由其他驱动循环组成的世界中，正反馈循环的驱动力。
From the inside perspective, purpose feels like chaos – the more purposeful the loop, and the harder you drive the loop, the more unpredictable the world around you will feel. Everything changes around you, in ways you can never anticipate or even control.
从内部的角度来看，目标感觉就像混乱 —— 目的性越强的循环，以及你越努力地推动这个循环，你周围的世界就会感觉越不可预测。你周围的一切都在变化，其方式你永远无法预料，甚至无法控制。
But from the outside perspective, looking in, purpose feels like order – the more purposeful the loop, the more orderly the universe feels, because you can look at the positive feedback loop driving its flow forward, and driving its purpose forward. From the outside, you recognize purpose as order: the steady state of a non-equilibrium system.
但从外面的角度看，目的感觉就像秩序 —— 目的性越强的循环，宇宙感觉就越有秩序，因为你可以看到驱动其流动的正反馈循环，并推动其目的前进。从外面看，你认识到目的是秩序：一个非平衡系统的稳定状态。
I’m sure you’ve had experiences like this – where from the inside it felt so chaotic, but from the outside, it appeared so inevitable. That’s what purpose is.
我相信你一定有过这样的经历——从内部看，这种感觉是如此混乱，但从外部看，这似乎是不可避免的。这就是目的。
Teacher: I think I’m going to call it. We’ve figured out the first rule.
老师: 我想我要宣布结束了。我们已经找到了第一条规则。
Student: That’s right. The first rule of Dancoland: Order is Chaos. I think we can check that one off: Order is Chaos, because they both mean purpose – but from two different perspectives.
学生: 是的。Dancoland 的第一条规则: 秩序就是混乱。我认为我们可以一次性检查一下: 秩序就是混乱，因为它们都意味着目的——但是从两个不同的角度。
And you know what? I feel like a weight has been lifted off of my shoulders a little bit. I feel like “cause” and “effect” just became a little less important. Loops don’t have a start or an end; they don’t have a cause or an effect. They have a purpose.
你知道吗？我觉得肩上的重担已经轻了一点。我觉得“原因”和“结果”变得不那么重要了。循环没有开始或结束; 它们没有因果关系。他们有自己的目标。
I think I’m finally letting go.
我想我终于要放手了。
Teacher: Nice! Feels good.
老师: 很好! 感觉很好。
Student: Sure does. I feel like getting the first rule is the hardest step; and now we’re in good shape to work through the other three.
学生: 当然。我觉得得到第一条规则是最困难的一步; 现在我们已经处于很好的状态，可以完成其他三条。
In fact, you know what, the second rule is actually just a stone’s throw away. “Chaos is Order”. I bet you that isn’t just a carbon copy of the first rule; it’s there for a reason.
事实上，你知道吗，第二条规则实际上就是一箭之遥。“混乱就是秩序”。我敢打赌，这不仅仅是第一条规则的复制品，它的存在是有原因的。
Teacher: I bet you this has to do with where loops come from.
老师: 我打赌这和循环的来源有关。
Student: You’re right. In fact, we already basically spelled this out, when we talked about layers emerging. Remember when we said, At some point, some aspect of the bug’s metabolism started making more of itself, and more and more, and at some point it made sense to call that a “cell”. And then as the cells made more of themselves, they became organ systems and then bugs and then bug communities.
学生: 你是对的。事实上，当我们讨论层的出现时，我们已经基本上说明了这一点。还记得我们说过，在某个时刻，虫子的新陈代谢的某些方面开始自我增强，而且越来越多，在某个时刻，称之为“细胞”是有意义的。然后，随着细胞自我生成的增多，它们变成了器官系统，然后是虫子，最后是虫子群落。
These looping layers, with their own purpose, had to emerge out of somewhere. They had to “escape” the world that existed before them. For a new layer to emerge that’s actually new, it has to have come from a starting point that has never existed before.
这些循环层，有它们自己的目的，必须从某个地方出现。他们不得不“逃离”他们面前的世界。对于一个新层出现，实际上是新的，它必须来自一个从来没有存在过的起点。
That’s why chaos is so useful. Positive feedback loops are where “new” comes from. The drive of the purposeful loops in the existing world – which seem like such a strong barrier to change, if you’re looking from one perspective – is also what gives birth to change, if you look from another perspective.
这就是为什么混乱是如此有用。正反馈循环是“新”的来源。如果你从另一个角度来看，现有世界中有目的的循环的驱动力——如果你从一个角度来看，这似乎是一个阻碍改变的强大障碍——也是催生改变的原因。
Teacher: You have to break out of loops in order to enter new spaces.
老师: 你必须打破循环才能进入新的空间。
Student: That’s right. That’s why chaos is such an important part of what’s going on. Nothing is permanent, because purpose creates the conditions for new purpose.
学生: 是的。这就是为什么混乱是正在发生的事情中如此重要的一部分。没有什么是永恒的，因为目标为新的目标创造了条件。
Teacher: I like that. Purpose creates the conditions for new purpose.
老师: 我喜欢这个说法。目的为新的目的创造条件。
Student: Chaos is order. There’s number two. Let’s check it off.
学生: 混乱就是秩序，这是第二个，我们来检查一下。
Teacher: Done. But that leaves three and four. They seem trickier.
老师: 完成了。但是还剩下三个和四个。他们看起来更棘手。
“Order without chaos is disorder.” And
“没有混乱的秩序就是无序。”
“Order without disorder is disorder.”
“没有混乱的秩序就是混乱。”
Student: You know what? I think I know what these are all about, too. But to answer them, we have to talk about disorder, and we have to finally address the meaning of the Furnace of the Universe.
学生: 你知道吗？我想我也知道这些是怎么回事。但是要回答这些问题，我们必须谈论无序，我们必须最终解决宇宙熔炉的意义。
Teacher: Let’s do it.
老师: 我们开始吧。
Student: So here’s the thing. As we’ve been talking about Order and Purpose, it’s been bugging me that we’d never actually talked much about Disorder. What even is it?
学生: 是这样的。正如我们一直在谈论秩序和目的，它一直困扰着我，我们从来没有真正谈论过无序。这到底是什么？
My instinct was to say, “Disorder must be the opposite of order.” It seems sensible and obvious. But then I thought back to how I used to think that Chaos was the opposite of order, too.
我的直觉告诉我: “无序一定是秩序的对立面。”这似乎是明智和显而易见的。但后来我又想起我过去是怎样认为混乱也是秩序的反面。
And that sure wasn’t true. Order and Chaos both mean Purpose, just from mirror points of view. So then what is Disorder? Is it Anti-purpose? Un-Purpose? Lack of purpose?
而这肯定不是真的。秩序和混沌都意味着目的，只是从镜像角度来看。那么，什么是无序呢？它是反目的吗？非目的性？缺少目的？
It’s none of those things. Disorder is SPENT Purpose.
这些都不是，无序就是失去目标。
Teacher: Disorder is Purpose that’s been consumed?
老师: 无序是被消耗掉的目的吗？
Student: That’s right.
学生: 是的。
Let’s go back to our loops. The farm, the nomads, the market, the bugs. All of these loops are productive: they do something useful in the world. And they’re all perpetuating: they end up back where they started. That’s what makes them loops.
让我们回到循环。农场，游牧民，市场，虫子。所有这些循环都是富有成效的：它们在世界上做一些有用的事情。它们都在延续：它们最终回到了它们开始的地方。这就是它们循环的原因。
But they also consume something. They’re not perpetual motion machines. Each time the farm goes through the loop, it consumes the energy of the sunlight, the nourishment of the rainfall, and the effort of the villagers. Each time the market goes through the loop, it consumes the demand of the buyers, the arrangement and preparation of the vendors, and on a long enough scale, even the durability and structural integrity of the building. Every loop produces disorder. Every loop consumes purpose.
但是它们也会消耗一些东西。它们不是永动机机器。每次农场经过这个环路，都会消耗阳光的能量、降雨的营养和村民们的努力。每次市场经过这个循环，它都会消耗买家的需求，供应商的安排和准备，甚至是建筑物的耐久性和结构完整性。每个循环都会产生无序。每一个循环都会消耗目的。
Teacher: Disorder is the remnant of consumed purpose.
老师: 无序是被消耗的目标的残余。
Student: That’s the meaning of the furnace of the universe. The universe continually spends its purpose. I remember when you showed me the furnace at the very beginning of our time together, I could only see it as a bad thing. You told me:
学生: 这就是宇宙熔炉的意义。宇宙不断地花费它的目的。我记得我们刚开始在一起的时候，你给我看那个火炉的时候，我只觉得那是件坏事。你告诉我:
We see the world as structured and orderly, but that structure is temporary. Over the long run, all of the organized structure in the world slowly but irreversibly breaks down into perfectly uniform disorder. Mountains eventually grind down into dirt; plants and animals die. Friendships end, social contracts dissolve. Kingdoms eventually fall away and are forgotten. Even the sun will run out one day. It’s like that riddle from The Hobbit. Nothing survives time, in the long run.
我们认为世界是有组织有秩序的，但这种结构只是暂时的。从长远来看，世界上所有有组织的结构都缓慢而不可逆转地分解成完全一致的无序状态。山脉最终会被磨成泥土，植物和动物也会死亡。友谊结束，社会契约解除。王国最终会消失并被遗忘。即使是太阳总有一天也会枯竭。就像《霍比特人》里的那个谜语。从长远来看，没有什么能在时间中生存。
Maybe that’s how we should think about time. Time is the forward motion of purpose. Purpose is created, and purpose is spent. It moves forward, in one direction: the direction of time.
也许我们应该这样看待时间。时间是目标的前进动力。目标被创造出来，目标被花费。它朝着一个方向前进: 时间的方向。
Teacher: Time is the forward motion of purpose. I guess that’s the final nail in the coffin for cause-and-effect thinking, isn’t it.
老师：时间是目的的向前运动。我想这就是因果思维的最后一颗钉子了，不是吗。
Student: That’s right. Cause and effect will fool you: in a world where everything is looping, there is no cause or effect. But there is purpose, and purpose moves in one direction: it is created, and it is spent.
学生: 是的。因果关系会愚弄你：在一个一切都是循环的世界里，没有因果关系。但是有目的，目的朝着一个方向移动：它被创造，它被花费。
Teacher: And it’s renewed, too.
老师: 而且它也更新了。
Student: Well, it can be. That’s up to us.
学生: 有可能，这取决于我们。
The systems that persist, like the villagers and the nomads, persist because they’ve found an arrangement of stocks and flows and surrounding loops that both consumes and renews its purpose.
像村民和游牧民族一样，这些系统依然存在，因为他们已经发现了存量和流量的安排，以及周围的循环，这些循环既消耗了存量，也延续了存量的目的。
Think about the difference between the villagers and the nomads: they are similar systems with similar purposes. They’ve both found different ways of feeding themselves, with their own looping balances of stocks and flows that renew themselves season after season, and re-consume their renewed purpose.
想想村民和游牧民族之间的区别: 他们是目的相似的系统。他们都找到了不同的方式来养活自己，用他们自己的循环平衡的库存和流量，一季又一季地更新自己，并重新消耗他们更新的目的。
Persistent loops must renew their purpose. They’re like muscles: the purpose of your muscles is for you to use them. How you use that purpose is up to you. You can spend them in a way that renews their purpose, by using them purposefully, or spend it in a way that doesn’t, by doing nothing.
持久循环必须更新它们的用途。它们就像肌肉：你肌肉的作用就是让你运用它们。如何使用这个目标取决于你自己。你可以通过有目的地使用它们，或者通过无所事事的方式来花费它们。
The same goes with each of the loops we saw on our journey. The farm ends its growing season exhausted; in disorder. The market ends its day messy; spent; disordered. But they loop back again, the next day and the next year, not because they’re just passively orbiting around and around, but because their purpose is continuously renewed by the participants around them, as they carry out their own loops and their own purposes.
我们在旅途中看到的每个循环也是如此。农场在生长季节结束时已经筋疲力尽，一片混乱。市场结束时一片混乱;；耗尽；无序。但是它们在第二天和第二年再次循环，并不是因为它们只是被动地绕着它们转，而是因为它们的目的被周围的参与者不断地更新，因为它们执行自己的循环和自己的目的。
Furthermore, sometimes we act with enough purpose that we chaotically rearrange the participants and loops around us, until a new loop gets established, which finds its own purpose. Like the market found its purpose on top of the farm, or how the many layers of the bugs evolved on top of one another.
此外，有时我们的行为有足够的目的性，以至于我们混乱地重新安排我们周围的参与者和循环，直到一个新的循环得到建立，从而找到自己的目的。就像市场在农场的基础上找到了自己的目的，或者虫子的许多层是如何在彼此的基础上演变的。
In consuming their own purpose, loops regenerate other purpose, and sometimes even create new purpose that has never existed before.
在消耗它们自己的目的时，循环再生其他目的，有时甚至创造出以前从未存在过的新目的。
Teacher: Loops carry out their work by spending purpose. They regenerate through other loops spending their purpose.
老师: 循环通过花费目的来完成它们的工作。它们通过其他循环来再生，花费它们的目的。
Student: That’s exactly right.
学生: 完全正确。
Hey, I think it’s time to finish off our four rules. I think we’re ready.
嘿，我想是时候完成我们的四条规则了。我想我们准备好了。
Teacher: So what did we have left? Order without Chaos is Disorder, and Order without Disorder is Disorder.
老师: 那么我们还剩下什么? 没有混乱的秩序就是无序，没有无序的秩序就是无序。
Student: Let’s try the first one.
学生: 让我们试试第一个。
Order without Chaos is Disorder – so that means:
没有混乱的秩序是无序的——这意味着:
Purpose – if it’s never directed outwards – is Spent Purpose.
目的——如果它从来没有向外发展——就是目的。
That makes sense to me. If purpose is not directed outward onto the surrounding world, it is simply spent, and nothing more. It’s never renewed, because there’s never any reason to do so. If you do things but don’t tell anyone, then your purpose can only really be consumed once. But if you do things and tell people, your purpose can self-renew.
这对我来说很有意义。如果目标不是向外指向周围的世界，那么它就只是花费了，没有别的了。它从来没有更新过，因为从来没有任何理由这样做。如果你做了一些事情却没有告诉任何人，那么你的目标只能实现一次。但是如果你做事并告诉别人，你的目标就可以自我更新。
And how about the second one?
那第二个呢？
Teacher:
老师:
Order without Disorder is Disorder – so that means:
无序的有序是无序的——也就是说:
Purpose – if you don’t spend it – is spent.
目标——如果你不把它花掉——就会被花掉。
Yeah, that’s another way of saying, “Use it or lose it”, just even more clearly this time. If you never spend your purpose, then it goes away all the same.
是的，这是另一种说法，“使用它或失去它”，只是这一次更加清楚。如果你从不花费你的目标，那么它仍然会消失。
Student: So there we have our four rules:
学生: 这就是我们的四条规则:
Order and Chaos are mirror perspectives of Purpose.
秩序和混乱是目的的镜像。
Purpose creates the conditions for more Purpose.
目的为更多的目的创造条件。
Purpose, if you don’t direct it outwards, is Spent Purpose.
目的，如果你不把它向外引导，就是花费的目的。
Purpose, if you don’t spend it in the first place, is Spent Purpose.
目的，如果你一开始就没有花掉它，那么它就是花费的目的。
Teacher: Looks great. I love it.
老师: 看起来不错，我很喜欢。
Student: And you know what? Now that I look around at all these boxes around us, which came in my backpack of knowledge, I finally realize what they are.
学生: 你知道吗？现在我环顾四周，看着我们周围的这些盒子，它们都是我背包里的知识，我终于意识到它们是什么。
All of these boxes, together, represent everything I know, and everything I’ve learned and experienced over my lifetime. And each one of them – if you open them up – has a purpose.
所有这些盒子，放在一起，代表了我所知道的一切，以及我一生中所学到和经历的一切。如果你打开它们，每一个都有一个目的。
There aren’t any just-so-stories in here at all. Nothing here is a cause or effect. There are just boxes and boxes full of everything I know, and why it’s there, and what’s their purpose in the world.
这里根本没有什么普通的故事。这里没有什么因果关系。这些箱子里装满了我所知道的一切，为什么它们会在这里，它们在这个世界上的目的是什么。
That’s what I’ve been accumulating my whole life. I just didn’t realize it until now, until you brought me here.
这就是我一生所积累的东西，直到现在我才意识到，直到你带我来到这里。
He looked over at his teacher, who was beaming with pride. She was clearly so happy for him. But at the same time, he couldn’t help but notice some sadness in her eyes, too.
他看着他的老师，老师满脸自豪地笑着。她显然为他感到高兴。但与此同时，他也注意到了她眼中的悲伤。
Student: I don’t really know how to ask this, but why did you come here? You never actually told me why you showed up in my dream.
学生: 我真的不知道怎么问，但是你为什么来这里？你从没告诉过我为什么你会出现在我的梦里。
Part.5
Teacher: So… this is a difficult question for me. But I’m glad you asked. It’s about time I told you why I’m here.
老师: 所以... ... 这对我来说是个很难的问题。但我很高兴你问了。是时候告诉你我为什么来了。
Over this past hour, it’s been so wonderful and inspiring to see you figure out Systems Thinking. At first, you didn’t really get it; but then you worked on it. You kept at it, and you figured it out so well that you’ve surpassed me. I’m so proud.
在过去的一个小时里，看到你理解了系统思考是多么的美妙和鼓舞人心。一开始，你并没有真正理解它；但是后来你开始努力。你继续努力，而且你理解得很好，你已经超越了我。我真为你骄傲。
But, here’s the thing. This doesn’t come naturally to many people your age. Not because people are inherently bad at systems thinking! But it’s hard for people to make that first step, around unlearning cause-and-effect thinking. And I’ve been part of the problem.
但事情是这样的。这对你这个年龄的人来说并不自然。这并不是因为人们天生就不善于系统思考！但是人们很难迈出第一步，忘记因果思维。我也是问题的一部分。
Student: How were you part of the problem? You were a great teacher.
学生: 你是怎么解决这个问题的? 你是一个很好的老师。
Teacher: I really tried my best, and I love teaching. But there’s something about school itself that does people a disservice, I think, when they go off into the real world and have to figure out the systems they encounter. I’ve traveled around, visiting former students, trying to figure out how to teach systems thinking. I never learned how. But then watching you, over this past hour, I realized something important.
老师: 我真的尽了最大的努力，而且我热爱教学。但我认为，当人们走进现实世界，不得不弄清他们所遇到的系统时，学校本身就会给他们带来伤害。我周游世界，拜访以前的学生，试图弄明白如何教授系统思考。我从来不知道怎么做。但是看着你，在过去的一个小时里，我意识到一些重要的事情。
Student: Watching me? What did I do that was so special?
学生: 看着我? 我做了什么特别的事？
Teacher: The big breakthrough, for me, was: you were able to learn systems thinking within the context of a system you already knew.
老师: 对我来说，最大的突破是: 你能够在一个你已经知道的系统中学习系统思维。
You see, my whole life I’ve taught kids who have all these different interests. Some of them love the woods; and know so many things about the forest as a system. Some kids love computers; and they understand it as a system too. Some kids love learning languages; some kids just love playing soccer.
你知道，我的一生都在教那些兴趣各异的孩子。他们中的一些人热爱森林，并且知道森林作为一个系统的许多事情。有些孩子喜欢电脑，他们也把电脑理解为一个系统。有些孩子喜欢学习语言，有些孩子只是喜欢踢足球。
What they all have in common is, when they’re inside a system they already know and love, they spend so much time looking around and so much time making things. They spend all of their time thinking about purpose, one way or another: either looking at things and wondering about their purpose, or making things with their own purpose.
他们的共同点是，当他们身处一个他们已经了解和喜爱的系统中时，他们会花很多时间环顾四周，花很多时间制作东西。他们把所有的时间都花在思考人生的目的上，不管是以某种方式：要么观察事物，思考它们的目的，要么按照自己的目的制造东西。
Student: Student: You’re right. I’d never thought about it before, but kids are naturally great systems thinkers.
学生: 你是对的，我以前从来没有想过，但是孩子们天生就是伟大的系统思考者。
Kids don’t naturally think in terms of cause-and-effect. They think in terms of purpose. They look at the world around them, and say, “The flower’s purpose is to bloom, and the grass’s purpose is to grow, and the sun’s purpose is to shine, and the garbage truck’s purpose is to pick up garbage, and the fire truck’s purpose is to put out fires.”
孩子们不会自然地按因果关系来思考。他们按照目的来思考。他们看着周围的世界，然后说，“花的目的是开花，草的目的是生长，太阳的目的是发光，垃圾车的目的是捡垃圾，消防车的目的是灭火。”
It’s so simple, and to some people it appears young or juvenile but it’s actually so wise. You and I can see why: “The garbage truck’s purpose is to pick up garbage” is actually much smarter than, “because we put out the garbage, therefore the garbage truck picks it up.” Same for “The flower’s purpose is to bloom.” Or, really, anything: it seems too simple, but when you actually understand the whole system around the flower, you realize, that’s exactly right. The flower’s purpose is to bloom.
这很简单，对一些人来说，这看起来很年轻或幼稚，但实际上是很明智的。你和我可以明白为什么: “垃圾车的目的是捡垃圾”实际上比“因为我们扔垃圾，所以垃圾车捡起来”聪明得多“花的目的就是开花”也是一样或者，真的，任何事情: 它看起来太简单了，但是当你真正理解了花朵周围的整个系统，你就会意识到，这是完全正确的。这朵花的目的是开花。
Teacher: That’s a great way to put it.
老师: 这是个很好的说法。
Student: You know when this first gets challenged, though? I don’t think it’s at school; it starts earlier than that.
学生: 你知道第一次遇到挑战是什么时候吗? 我不认为是在学校，它开始得比那还早。
Let me ask you something: what’s the most famous question that kids ask? All the time?
让我问你一个问题: 孩子们经常问的最有名的问题是什么？
Teacher: That’s an easy answer. It’s “Why?” Kids ask Why all the time. It’s a well-known thing kids do.
老师: 这是个简单的答案。是“为什么?”孩子们总是问为什么。这是孩子们常做的一件事。
Student: That’s right. Kids naturally ask, “Why?” about everything out there in the world.
学生: 是的，孩子们自然会问，“为什么?”，关于世界上的一切。
But here’s the thing: when kids ask “Why”, they mean one thing; but parents hear something else.
但是事情是这样的: 当孩子问“为什么”时，他们的意思是一件事; 但是父母听到的是另一件事。
When kids ask Why?, they’re asking, what is the purpose of something. But parents hear: what caused something.
当孩子问为什么的时候，他们问的是，什么是事物的目的。但是父母听到的是：什么导致了事物。
Teacher: Oh wow. You’re right. Kids see the world as made of purpose, but grown-ups see the world as made of cause-and-effect. So the word “Why” means completely different things. Actually, opposite things.
老师: 哦，哇。你说得对。孩子们认为这个世界是有目的的，但是大人们认为这个世界是有因果关系的。所以“为什么”这个词的意思完全不同。事实上，是相反的事情。
Student: Yeah. I think that’s part of why grown-ups get frustrated answering the endless “Why” questions. Because they get harder and harder to answer, if you’re thinking about them in terms of chains of cause-and-effect.
学生: 是的。我想这就是为什么成年人在回答无休止的“为什么”问题时会感到沮丧的部分原因。因为它们变得越来越难回答，如果你用因果链来思考它们的话。
For grown-ups, “Why” is like a tightrope. The longer the chain of questions, the harder it is to stay balanced on it. It’s stressful.
对于成年人来说，“为什么”就像是走钢丝。问题链越长，就越难保持平衡。压力很大。
But kids don’t see it that way at all. To them, Why isn’t a tightrope at all. It’s like a spider web, or a jungle gym. They keep asking why in order to learn, what’s the purpose of that? And that? And that? And each answer makes the web stronger, and more stable, and more fun to climb on and explore.
但是孩子们根本不这么认为。对他们来说，为什么钢丝绳根本不是钢丝绳。它就像一张蜘蛛网，或者一个攀登架。为了学习，他们不停地问为什么，这样做的目的是什么？那个呢？那个呢？每一个答案都让网络变得更加强大，更加稳定，更加有趣，可以攀爬和探索。
Teacher: That’s exactly right. But here’s what I was getting at before: kids are naturally such great systems thinkers, and are so naturally curious about the world. They spend all of their time looking around, and making things, in environments that they already know.
老师: 完全正确。但是我之前得出的结论是: 孩子们天生就是伟大的系统思考者，他们对世界充满了好奇。他们把所有的时间都花在环顾四周，在他们已经熟悉的环境中制造东西。
But then they go to school. School doesn’t work like that.
然后他们去上学，学校不是那样的。
Student: It sure doesn’t. In a classroom there can only really be one textbook; one set of lessons to learn, and one problem set to solve. So in order to make that work, you have to take all of the kids out of the environments they already know, and are already interested in, and put them into some neutral context that’s the same for everyone.
学生: 当然不是。在一个教室里只能有一本教科书，一套课程要学习，一套问题要解决。所以为了达到这个目的，你必须把所有的孩子从他们已经知道的，已经感兴趣的环境中带出来，把他们放到一些中立的环境中，这对每个人都是一样的。
Teacher: And so, what do we do in school? We solve problems. We learn there’s a formula for how to do a problem, and then a set of problems with definite answers, and a cause-and-effect relationship between the questions and the answers.
老师: 那么，我们在学校做什么呢？我们解决问题。我们学习了如何处理一个问题的公式，然后是一系列有明确答案的问题，以及问题和答案之间的因果关系。
When you initially told me that just-so story about your walking speed and village size, that was familiar to me; it’s the kind of thinking you learn in school. It’s sensible; it proceeds from X to Y to Z in an orderly manner. But it’s not how your world works; or how any world works. It’s tightrope thinking.
当你最初告诉我关于你的步行速度和村庄大小的故事时，我很熟悉; 这是你在学校里学到的思维方式。这是合理的，它以一种有序的方式从 x 到 y 到 z。但这不是你的世界如何运作，也不是任何世界如何运作。这是一种走钢丝的思维。
Student: Yeah. Whereas if you look at kids in environments where they’re thriving – so could be sports, or clubs, hobbies, their neighbourhoods, or to be honest sometimes it’s even in school, in subjects they’ve really fallen in love with – what they all have in common is they aren’t problem solving. There’s lots of looking, and lots of making, but no trying to “solve” anything.
学生: 是的。然而，如果你观察一下孩子们在成长环境中的表现——可能是体育、俱乐部、业余爱好、邻里关系，或者说实话，有时候甚至是在学校，在他们真正喜欢的科目中——他们都有一个共同点，那就是他们不善于解决问题。有很多的观察，很多的创造，但没有试图“解决”任何事情。
Teacher: Well, I do know something at the end of all of this. And it’s that I want to thank you for sharing your dream with me. I know I learned something.
老师: 嗯，我确实知道一些关于这一切的事情。我要感谢你和我分享你的梦想。我知道我学到了一些东西。
Student: I’m really glad you came here. I did too.
学生: 我很高兴你来这里，我也是。
Teacher: And on that note, it’s nearly morning. I need to get going soon, before you wake up.
老师: 说到这里，已经快天亮了，我得赶在你醒来之前出发了。
So in our last few minutes together, I have one last question for you: how do we preserve, and regain, that Childhood systems-thinking mode? Where instead of heading down the path of tightrope knowledge and cause-and-effect thinking, we can joyfully play in our purposeful, systems-thinking mindset?
所以在我们在一起的最后几分钟里，我有最后一个问题要问你们：我们如何保持和恢复童年时期的系统思维模式？与其走钢丝般的知识和因果思维的道路，我们还有什么地方可以在目标明确、系统思维的心态中快乐地发挥呢？
Student: That’s a great question to end on. And I think I have something for you. Two things, actually. One parable, and one piece of advice I heard once. I heard both of them a long time ago, and they didn’t resonate with me at all back then. I never thought about them much before. But now I think they make sense.
学生: 这是一个很好的结束问题。我想我有东西要给你。实际上是两件事。一个寓言，还有一条我曾经听到的建议。我很久以前就听过他们两个人的歌，那时候我对他们完全没有共鸣。我以前从来没有想过他们。但是现在我认为他们有意义了。
The first one is the story of the frog and the scorpion. Do you know it?
第一个是青蛙和蝎子的故事，你知道吗？
Teacher: No. Tell me.
老师: 不，告诉我。
Student: A long time ago, a frog and a scorpion were friends. One day, the scorpion needed to cross a river. He asked the frog to carry him across, and the frog agreed. But then halfway across the river, the scorpion stung the frog.
学生: 很久以前，一只青蛙和一只蝎子是朋友。有一天，蝎子需要渡过一条河。他请青蛙背他过河，青蛙答应了。但是过了一半的河，蝎子叮了青蛙一下。
Frog cried out: “Why did you do that? Now I will die, and then you will drown.”
青蛙喊道: “你为什么要这么做? 现在我要死了，你也要淹死了。”
And the scorpion replied: “I’m sorry. It’s just in my nature.”
蝎子回答说: “对不起，这是我的天性。”
Teacher: That’s a depressing story.
老师: 这是一个令人沮丧的故事。
Student: It is; or, I guess, I thought it was. The scorpion had a purpose, and he carried out his purpose. There’s no cause-and-effect explanation for why this happened. You won’t find any answers there, or any comfort.
学生: 是的，或者，我想，我以为是的。蝎子有了目的，他完成了他的目的。对于为什么会发生这种情况，没有因果关系的解释。你在那里找不到任何答案，也找不到任何安慰。
But here’s the second piece of advice, and once you hear it, I think you’ll understand the story in a different light. It goes:
但这是第二条建议，一旦你听到了，我想你会从另一个角度理解这个故事。它是这样写的：
We become the stories that we tell about ourselves.
我们变成了我们自己的故事。
Teacher: We become the stories that we tell about ourselves?
老师: 我们变成了我们讲述自己的故事？
Student: That’s right. Because the stories that we tell about ourselves become our purpose. And then our purpose carries itself out. If we become the scorpion, it’s because we told a story about ourselves: “I am the scorpion!” And then that becomes our purpose.
学生。这就对了。因为我们讲述的关于自己的故事成为我们的目的。然后我们的目的就会体现出来。如果我们成为蝎子，那是因为我们讲述了一个关于自己的故事。"我是蝎子！" 然后这就成为我们的目的。
Purpose is something that we choose. So it’s important to go find the right one, because the purpose you choose will determine how you spend it, and how you recharge it. And that will determine who you are, in this world.
目的是我们选择的东西。因此，找到正确的目标是很重要的，因为你选择的目标将决定你如何使用它，以及如何为它充电。这将决定在这个世界上你是谁。
Let me leave you with a simple system to think about. It’s a system with three parts: a parent, a child, and their toys.
让我给你们留下一个简单的系统来思考。这是一个由三部分组成的系统: 父母、孩子和他们的玩具。
Teacher: Sounds promising. I’m ready.
老师: 听起来很有希望。我准备好了。
Student: Let’s begin with the toys. Through the eyes of the child, the toys have a clear purpose. They’re to be played with! That’s the point of toys; to play with them joyfully. By playing with the toys, their purpose is spent. They end the afternoon strewn all over the floor, in total disorder.
学生: 让我们从玩具开始。通过孩子的眼睛，玩具有一个明确的目的。他们是用来玩的！这就是玩具的意义所在，和他们快乐地玩耍。玩这些玩具，他们的目的就消失了。下午结束时，他们散落在地板上，一片狼藉。
Meanwhile, through the eyes of the parent, there’s another purpose at work: the purpose of their child’s happiness. At the end of the day, the parent spends their purpose putting the toys away for another day of play. At the end, the parent is tired. They feel spent.
与此同时，在父母的眼中，工作还有另一个目的：让孩子快乐的目的。在一天结束的时候，父母会把玩具收起来，准备下一天的游戏。最后，父母感到累了。他们感到精疲力尽。
If those systems existed in isolation from one another, they’d reach equilibrium after one cycle. We’d end with the toys in disarray, and the parent exhausted. We’d achieve disorder, permanently.
如果这些系统彼此孤立存在，它们将在一个周期后达到平衡。我们会以玩具乱成一团，父母精疲力尽而告终。我们会永久性地陷入混乱。
But these two systems restore one another’s purpose, and that’s why they persist. The parent’s effort restores the purpose of the toys, and the child’s joy restores the purpose of the parent.
但是，这两个系统相互恢复彼此的目的，这就是为什么它们会持续存在。父母的努力恢复了玩具的目的，孩子的快乐恢复了父母的目的。
Teacher: I think I see where you’re going here. What makes this system work is the parent choosing: “My purpose is my child’s happiness”, as opposed to something like, “My purpose is cleaning up.” One recharges the system; and makes it loop. The other doesn’t. It dead ends.
老师：我想我明白你意思了。这个系统之所以有效，是因为家长选择了。"我的目的是我孩子的幸福"，而不是 "我的目的是打扫卫生"。一个目的能给系统充电，并使其循环。另一个则不能。它是死结。
Student: Exactly. If the parent tells a story about themselves that goes, “I spend all day cleaning up after my kid”, then they’re going to believe it. Not only are they going to get repeatedly tired and cranky, they’ll also be failing to participate in this system, in a meaningful way. The system will find a different, much worse steady state, with a tired parent and a resentful kid.
学生: 没错。如果父母讲述了一个关于他们自己的故事，“我花了一整天的时间为我的孩子打扫卫生”，那么他们就会相信这个故事。他们不仅会反复地感到疲惫和暴躁，而且还会以一种有意义的方式无法参与这个系统。这个系统将会找到一个不同的，更糟糕的稳定状态，一个疲惫的父母和一个愤怒的孩子。
But when the parent sees their purpose as “I am the parent of a happy child”, then not only will helping out feel like recharging, it’ll also help this system enter new states, like the parent and child playing together, and making things together. The parent will get to participate in the child’s purpose, in the order and chaos of play.
但是，当父母认为他们的目的是“我是一个快乐孩子的父母”时，那么帮助孩子不仅会让他们感觉像是在充电，还会帮助这个系统进入新的状态，比如父母和孩子一起玩耍，一起做事情。父母会参与到孩子的目标中，参与到游戏的秩序和混乱中。
Teacher: I bet this is where understanding “Order and Chaos being the same thing” can really help.
老师: 我打赌这就是理解“秩序和混乱是一回事”真正有帮助的地方。
Student: Exactly! That’s one of the best things about being a parent, is appreciating how the child’s purposeful play is simultaneously so orderly (when you look at from the outside in), but also so chaotic (from the inside out) in a special sense: tiny discoveries made while playing can cascade into positive feedback cycles of new interests, new understanding, and a new way of interacting with the world that really changes the world around us.
学生: 没错！这就是为人父母最大的好处之一，就是欣赏孩子有目的的游戏是多么有序(当你从外面看的时候) ，同时也是多么混乱(从内到外) ，在一个特殊的意义上：在游戏中的微小发现可以串联成积极的反馈循环，产生新的兴趣、新的理解，以及一种与世界互动的新方式，这种互动真正改变了我们周围的世界。
Teacher: That’s right. Some small detail that a kid notices while playing, or some tiny event that shapes the course of a playful afternoon, could massively change how that kid goes on to experience and appreciate the world. It’s the best kind of chaos. Not only is it Purpose that recharges Purpose (the parent’s), it’s also Purpose that creates new Purpose (the child’s).
老师: 是的。一些孩子在玩耍时注意到的小细节，或者一些塑造了一个好玩的下午的小事件，都可能大大改变孩子继续体验和欣赏这个世界的方式。这是最好的一种混乱。不仅是目的重新激活了目的(父母的) ，也是目的创造了新的目的(孩子的)。
Wow, all of those lessons from our time together just came together all at once there.
哇，我们在一起的那些经验教训一下子都汇聚到一起了。
Student: Kids show us the way, don’t they.
学生: 孩子们给我们指明了方向，不是吗。
Teacher: They sure do.
老师: 当然。
Student: All right, I guess we’d better go. But I’m thinking we should probably leave something behind.
学生: 好吧，我想我们最好还是走吧。但是我想我们应该留下一些东西。
Teacher: You read my mind. Do you have a pen?
老师: 你读懂了我的心思。你有笔吗？
Student: Sure do.
学生: 当然。
The teacher and the student both smiled. They knew their time was up; it was morning. The student started to wake up. But before he did, there was one last thing he had to do, which was pack up this whole entire dream – the farm, the furnace, the bugs, the layers, and everything else – and put it into his Backpack of Knowledge. He had a feeling he might need that backpack another night, for another dream. Some day.
老师和学生都笑了。他们知道他们的时间到了，已经是早上了。那个学生开始醒来。但在这之前，他还有最后一件事情要做，那就是把整个梦想——农场、熔炉、虫子、层层叠叠，以及其他一切——打包放进他的知识背包里。他有种感觉，他可能需要那个背包，另一个晚上，另一个梦。总有一天。
And then he put on the backpack, and woke up.
然后他背上背包，醒了过来。
